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Lehrende: Prof. Dr. Jarko Fidrmuc; Prof. Dr. Richard Frensch
Veranstaltungsart:
Seminar
Orga-Einheit: Corporate Management & Economics
Anzeige im Stundenplan:
VSCME_I
Semesterwochenstunden:
3
Credits:
9,0
Hinweis: In Ihrer Prüfungsordnung können abweichende Credits festgelegt sein.
Standort:
Campus der Zeppelin Universität
Unterrichtssprache:
Englisch
Min. | Max. Teilnehmerzahl:
8 | 35
Prioritätsschema: Standard-Priorisierung
Inhalte:
Course Content: We are seeing unprecedented developments of the global economy (globalization and deglobalization, rising and declining superpowers; automation and AI rising the question whether there is a decline of distance in trade, etc.) which require deep analysis necessary for the formulation of appropriate evidence based economic policies. Despite the growing use of quantitative methods in policymaking, existing textbooks and courses often do not address the full range of practical questions both researchers and policymakers might face when describing and analyzing trade policies.
These issues include matters as simple as
| where to find the appropriate trade and tariff data and differences between alternative data sources;
| how to develop a country’s basic statistics on trade.
| More complicated issues include the choice of the best analytical tools for answering questions on the economic impact of trade agreements.
This course on trade description and trade policy evaluation aims at filling this gap by discussing the quantification of trade flows and trade policies and reviewing the gravity model, used to assess the determinants and patterns of trade, including the trade effects of certain trade policies. In particular, this course explains how to conduct partial equilibrium estimations as well as general equilibrium analysis with structural gravity models, and contains practical guidance on how to apply these tools to concrete policy questions.
Lernziele:
By the end of the course, students should know:
| How to analyze trade flows (how goods are classified in commonly used trade nomenclatures; where useful trade databases can be found and what their qualities and pitfalls are; what the key measurement issues are; what main indices are used to assess the nature of foreign trade in terms of structural, sectoral and geographical composition);
| How to display trade data graphically in a clear and appealing way;
| How to quantify trade policy: how tariff and non-tariff measures (NTM) data are presented in the main databases available; how to present a tariff profile that summarizes the salient features of a country's tariff structure; how to define and calculate Effective Rates of Protection; how to calculate the ad-valorem tariff equivalent of a quantitative restriction (QR); how to assess the overall trade restrictiveness of a trade policy stance);
| How to do partial equilibrium trade policy analysis with structural gravity: how the structural gravity model is derived; what are the main measurement issues associated with gravity data; what are the main econometric issues associated with the estimation of the structural gravity model and how to address them; how to econometrically estimate the structural gravity model; how to interpret and consistently aggregate gravity estimates.
| How to do general equilibrium trade policy analysis with structural gravity: how to perform general equilibrium counterfactual analysis of trade policy with the structural gravity model; how to obtain theory-consistent general equilibrium effects of trade policy with the structural gravity model applying the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator; how to interpret general equilibrium results to make trade policy inferences.
| Overview of application of gravity models to migration and factor flows.
Weitere Informationen zu den Prüfungsleistungen:
Attendance at the lectures (80%) is obligatory!
Presentation (50%), essay (50%).
Literatur:
Literature and further material:
Our course is based on material jointly developed at the WTO and UNCTAD for training courses (https://unctad.org/topic/trade-analysis/trade-policy-analysis, https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/advancedguide2016_e.htm):
| A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis
For our purposes, the book discusses the quantification of trade flows and trade policies and reviews the gravity model, used to assess the determinants and patterns of trade, including the trade effects of certain trade policies.
| An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model
The book provides the most recent tools for trade policy evaluation using structural gravity models. It explains how to conduct partial equilibrium estimations as well as general equilibrium analysis with structural gravity models.
Both publications plus study material (data, application and exercise files) may be downloaded from the above WTO or UNCTAD websites (study material is easier to download from the WTO site). The second publication is available in revised version: An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model. Online Revised Version, at https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/gds2016d3_book_en.pdf
The study material is written for Stata users. However, much of the relevant material is by now available to R users:
| ESCAP Online Training on Using R for Trade Analysis (https://r.tiid.org/)
| The gravity model of international trade: a user guide [r version] (https://www.unescap.org/resources/gravity-model-international-trade-user-guide-r-version)
and in particular:
| Solutions Manual for An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis in R (https://r.tiid.org/R_structural_gravity/)
In addition, selected academic papers and documents from international organisations will be recommended during the course.
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